Barcelona host Real Madrid in the La Liga on Sunday 10 May, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Camp Nou. Barcelona are 1st with 33 points from 12 games (top of the table), while Real Madrid sit 2nd on 30 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Barcelona's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Celta Vigo 1–0 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game.
Real Madrid's last 5: WLDLW Most recently they beat Alaves 2–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Barcelona arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 2.4 for Barcelona and 1.2 for Real Madrid. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 72% and both teams to score at 67%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Barcelona 65%, draw 14%, Real Madrid 21%.
Both teams to score: yes (67%) at 1.33.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Barcelona to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.61, above our fair price of 1.53, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Barcelona 2–1 Real Madrid. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Barcelona65%fair 1.53 · @1.61
Draw14%fair 7.24 · @4.65
Real Madrid21%fair 4.80 · @4.20
3.59Expected goals
2.37Barcelona xG
1.22Real Madrid xG
67%Both score
72%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
1–18%
2–08%
3–17%
1–07%
3–06%
From our goals model: Barcelona 2.4 – 1.2 Real Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Barcelona to win
65%
1.53
1.61 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
86%
1.16
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
67%
1.48
1.33
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
88%
1.14
1.07
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
72%
1.38
1.25
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
52%
1.91
1.67
Half-time result
Barcelona ahead at half-time
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Barcelona / FT Barcelona
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
10.57
–
Form
Barcelona – last 6
WWLWWW
22 Apr
vs Celta Vigo
1–0
W
14 Apr
@ Atletico Madrid
2–1
W
8 Apr
vs Atletico Madrid
0–2
L
22 Mar
vs Rayo Vallecano
1–0
W
18 Mar
vs Newcastle
7–2
W
15 Mar
vs Sevilla
5–2
W
2.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Real Madrid – last 6
WLDLWW
21 Apr
vs Alaves
2–1
W
15 Apr
@ Bayern München
3–4
L
10 Apr
vs Girona
1–1
D
7 Apr
vs Bayern München
1–2
L
17 Mar
@ Manchester City
2–1
W
11 Mar
vs Manchester City
3–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Barcelona and Real Madrid.
What is the prediction for Barcelona vs Real Madrid?
Our pick is Barcelona to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.61.
Who will win Barcelona vs Real Madrid?
On our numbers Barcelona have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Real Madrid 21%.
How many goals will there be in Barcelona vs Real Madrid?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Barcelona vs Real Madrid?
Our predicted score is Barcelona 2–1 Real Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Barcelona vs Real Madrid?
Barcelona vs Real Madrid (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Camp Nou.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Mallorca1
Oviedo