Value bet: Celta Vigo to win @ 3.10 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultValencia to win ✗39% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.69
Valencia vs Celta Vigo preview and prediction
The match
Valencia host Celta Vigo in the La Liga on Sunday 5 April, with kick-off at 15:15 (WAT) at Estadio de Mestalla. Valencia are 19th with 9 points from 12 games (in the bottom three), while Celta Vigo sit 11th on 13 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Valencia's last 3: WLW Most recently they beat Osasuna 1–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Celta Vigo's last 5: LWDDL Most recently they lost to Alaves 3–4 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Valencia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Valencia and 1.2 for Celta Vigo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Valencia 39%, draw 24%, Celta Vigo 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Celta Vigo to win at 3.10 – 36% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Valencia 1–1 Celta Vigo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Valencia39%fair 2.55 · @2.30
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.20
Celta Vigo36%fair 2.74 · @3.10
2.53Expected goals
1.29Valencia xG
1.23Celta Vigo xG
52%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Valencia 1.3 – 1.2 Celta Vigo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Valencia to win✗
39%
2.55
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Valencia / FT Valencia✗
22%
4.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.69
–
Form
Valencia – last 3
WLW
1 Mar
vs Osasuna
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Villarreal
1–2
L
15 Feb
@ Levante
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Celta Vigo – last 6
LWDDLW
22 Mar
vs Alaves
3–4
L
19 Mar
@ Lyon
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Real Betis
1–1
D
12 Mar
vs Lyon
1–1
D
6 Mar
vs Real Madrid
1–2
L
26 Feb
vs PAOK
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Valencia and Celta Vigo.
What is the prediction for Valencia vs Celta Vigo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Valencia vs Celta Vigo?
On our numbers Valencia have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Celta Vigo 36%.
How many goals will there be in Valencia vs Celta Vigo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Valencia vs Celta Vigo?
Our predicted score is Valencia 1–1 Celta Vigo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Valencia vs Celta Vigo?
Valencia vs Celta Vigo (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 15:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de Mestalla.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Oviedo1