Value bet: Osasuna to win @ 2.82 – our chance 38% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlaves to win ✗38% · @2.54
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.18
Alaves vs Osasuna preview and prediction
The match
Alaves host Osasuna in the La Liga on Sunday 5 April, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Estadio Mendizorrotza. Alaves are 12th with 13 points from 12 games (in the bottom half), while Osasuna sit 16th on 12 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Alaves's last 4: WDLD Most recently they beat Celta Vigo 4–3 away. They average 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Alaves and 1.2 for Osasuna. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Alaves 38%, draw 25%, Osasuna 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.90.
Value angle: Osasuna to win at 2.82 – 38% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Alaves 1–1 Osasuna. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alaves38%fair 2.65 · @2.54
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @3.10
Osasuna38%fair 2.66 · @2.82
2.40Expected goals
1.20Alaves xG
1.20Osasuna xG
51%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–111%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Alaves 1.2 – 1.2 Osasuna expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alaves to win✗
38%
2.65
2.54
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.29
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alaves / FT Alaves✗
21%
4.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.18
–
Form
Alaves – last 4
WDLD
22 Mar
@ Celta Vigo
4–3
W
13 Mar
vs Villarreal
1–1
D
27 Feb
@ Levante
0–2
L
23 Feb
vs Girona
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Osasuna – last 2
LD
1 Mar
@ Valencia
0–1
L
13 Feb
@ Elche
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alaves and Osasuna.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Alaves vs Osasuna?
On our numbers Alaves have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Osasuna 38%.
How many goals will there be in Alaves vs Osasuna?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alaves vs Osasuna?
Our predicted score is Alaves 1–1 Osasuna, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Alaves vs Osasuna?
Alaves vs Osasuna (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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