Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Alaves to win @ 4.00 – our chance 33% vs 25% implied by the price (edge +32%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultValencia to win44% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score53% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–013% · fair 7.95
Valencia vs Alaves preview and prediction
The match
Alaves travel to Estadio de Mestalla in the La Liga on Sunday 8 March (21:00 WAT) to face Valencia. Valencia are 19th with 9 points from 12 games (in the bottom three), while Alaves sit 12th on 13 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Valencia's last 3: WLW Most recently they beat Osasuna 1–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.3 for Valencia and 1.0 for Alaves. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Valencia 44%, draw 23%, Alaves 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.05.
Value angle: Alaves to win at 4.00 – 33% on our numbers against 25% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Valencia 1–1 Alaves. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Valencia44%fair 2.25 · @2.00
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.10
Alaves33%fair 3.03 · @4.00
2.31Expected goals
1.27Valencia xG
1.04Alaves xG
53%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–110%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Valencia 1.3 – 1.0 Alaves expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Valencia to win
44%
2.25
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win
77%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
53%
1.88
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
66%
1.52
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
60%
1.67
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
79%
1.26
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Valencia / FT Valencia
24%
4.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
13%
7.95
–
Form
Valencia – last 3
WLW
1 Mar
vs Osasuna
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Villarreal
1–2
L
15 Feb
@ Levante
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Alaves – last 2
LD
27 Feb
@ Levante
0–2
L
23 Feb
vs Girona
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Valencia and Alaves.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Valencia vs Alaves?
On our numbers Valencia have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Alaves 33%.
How many goals will there be in Valencia vs Alaves?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Valencia vs Alaves?
Our predicted score is Valencia 1–1 Alaves, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Valencia vs Alaves?
Valencia vs Alaves (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de Mestalla.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
