Value bet: Paris FC to win @ 3.25 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLorient to win ✗43% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.00
Lorient vs Paris FC preview and prediction
The match
Paris FC travel to Stade du Moustoir in the Ligue 1 on Sunday 5 April (16:15 WAT) to face Lorient. Lorient are 10th with 15 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Paris FC sit 3rd on 20 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Lorient's last 4: DDDW Most recently they drew with Lille 1–1 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Paris FC's last 3: WDW Most recently they beat Le Havre 3–2 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Paris FC arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for Lorient and 1.2 for Paris FC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lorient 43%, draw 22%, Paris FC 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Paris FC to win at 3.25 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Lorient 1–1 Paris FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lorient43%fair 2.31 · @2.20
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.20
Paris FC34%fair 2.90 · @3.25
2.66Expected goals
1.42Lorient xG
1.23Paris FC xG
58%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–19%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Lorient 1.4 – 1.2 Paris FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lorient to win✗
43%
2.31
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lorient / FT Lorient✗
24%
4.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
10.00
–
Form
Lorient – last 4
DDDW
8 Mar
@ Lille
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Auxerre
2–2
D
22 Feb
@ Nice
3–3
D
15 Feb
vs Angers
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Paris FC – last 3
WDW
22 Mar
vs Le Havre
3–2
W
15 Mar
@ Strasbourg
0–0
D
1 Mar
vs Nice
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lorient and Paris FC.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Lorient vs Paris FC?
On our numbers Lorient have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Paris FC 34%.
How many goals will there be in Lorient vs Paris FC?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lorient vs Paris FC?
Our predicted score is Lorient 1–1 Paris FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Lorient vs Paris FC?
Lorient vs Paris FC (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 16:15 (West Africa Time) at Stade du Moustoir.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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