Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Toulouse to win @ 1.95 – our chance 58% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultToulouse to win ✓58% · @1.95
Double chanceToulouse or draw ✓83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.80
Metz vs Toulouse preview and prediction
The match
Toulouse travel to Stade Saint-Symphorien in the Ligue 1 on Sunday 15 March (17:15 WAT) to face Metz.
Form guide
Metz's last 3: LLL Most recently they lost to Lens 0–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 0.9 for Metz and 1.9 for Toulouse. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 50%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Metz 17%, draw 26%, Toulouse 58%.
Safer route: Toulouse or draw (83%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Toulouse to win at 1.95 – 58% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Toulouse or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Metz 0–1 Toulouse. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Metz17%fair 6.00 · @3.80
Draw26%fair 3.90 · @3.25
Toulouse58%fair 1.73 · @1.95
2.80Expected goals
0.93Metz xG
1.87Toulouse xG
50%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–111%
0–211%
1–111%
1–210%
0–37%
1–36%
From our goals model: Metz 0.9 – 1.9 Toulouse expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toulouse to win✓
58%
1.73
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Toulouse or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
–
Half-time result
Toulouse ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toulouse / FT Toulouse✓
37%
2.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
8.80
–
Form
Metz – last 3
LLL
8 Mar
@ Lens
0–3
L
1 Mar
vs Stade Brestois 29
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Auxerre
1–3
L
0.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Toulouse – last 1
L
15 Feb
@ Le Havre
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Metz and Toulouse.
Our pick is Toulouse or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Metz vs Toulouse?
On our numbers Metz have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Toulouse 58%.
How many goals will there be in Metz vs Toulouse?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Metz vs Toulouse?
Our predicted score is Metz 0–1 Toulouse, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Metz vs Toulouse?
Metz vs Toulouse (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 17:15 (West Africa Time) at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
