Lens host Metz in the Ligue 1 on Sunday 8 March, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.3 for Lens and 0.8 for Metz. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 60% and both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lens 72%, draw 18%, Metz 10%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.80.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Lens to win – a 72% chance at odds of 1.31. Predicted score: Lens 2–0 Metz. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lens72%fair 1.39 · @1.31
Draw18%fair 5.41 · @5.30
Metz10%fair 10.20 · @8.40
3.06Expected goals
2.31Lens xG
0.75Metz xG
56%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–011%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
From our goals model: Lens 2.3 – 0.8 Metz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lens to win✓
72%
1.39
1.31
Double chance
Lens or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
1.60
Half-time result
Lens ahead at half-time✓
53%
1.90
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lens / FT Lens✓
48%
2.06
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
12%
8.00
–
Form
Lens – last 2
DL
27 Feb
@ Strasbourg
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Monaco
2–3
L
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Metz – last 2
LL
1 Mar
vs Stade Brestois 29
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Auxerre
1–3
L
0.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lens and Metz.
Our pick is Lens to win with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.31.
Who will win Lens vs Metz?
On our numbers Lens have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Metz 10%.
How many goals will there be in Lens vs Metz?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lens vs Metz?
Our predicted score is Lens 2–0 Metz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Lens vs Metz?
Lens vs Metz (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
