Value bet: Birmingham to win @ 1.73 – our chance 63% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBirmingham to win ✓63% · @1.73
Double chanceBirmingham or draw ✓88% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.90
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓13% · fair 7.54
Birmingham vs QPR preview and prediction
The match
The Championship sees Birmingham take on QPR on Wednesday 11 March, kicking off at 20:45 (WAT) at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park. Birmingham are 1st with 29 points from 15 games (top of the table), while QPR sit 8th on 24 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Birmingham's last 3: LLW Most recently they lost to Middlesbrough 1–3 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 2.3 conceded.
QPR's last 3: LLW Most recently they lost to Middlesbrough 0–4 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 3.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.9 for Birmingham and 0.8 for QPR. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 51%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Birmingham 63%, draw 25%, QPR 12%.
Safer route: Birmingham or draw (88%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.90.
Value angle: Birmingham to win at 1.73 – 63% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Birmingham 2–0 QPR. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Birmingham63%fair 1.58 · @1.73
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @3.65
QPR12%fair 8.29 · @4.60
2.68Expected goals
1.92Birmingham xG
0.75QPR xG
51%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Birmingham 1.9 – 0.8 QPR expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Birmingham to win✓
63%
1.58
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Birmingham or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.36
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.30
Half-time result
Birmingham ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Birmingham / FT Birmingham✓
42%
2.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
13%
7.54
–
Form
Birmingham – last 3
LLW
2 Mar
vs Middlesbrough
1–3
L
25 Feb
@ Millwall
0–3
L
21 Feb
@ Norwich
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
QPR – last 3
LLW
8 Mar
vs Middlesbrough
0–4
L
24 Feb
@ Southampton
0–5
L
21 Feb
@ Hull City
3–1
W
1.0Scored / game
3.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Birmingham and QPR.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Birmingham vs QPR?
On our numbers Birmingham have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 25% and QPR 12%.
How many goals will there be in Birmingham vs QPR?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Birmingham vs QPR?
Our predicted score is Birmingham 2–0 QPR, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Birmingham vs QPR?
Birmingham vs QPR (Championship) kicks off on Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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