Value bet: Charlton to win @ 3.40 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultBirmingham to win45% · @2.14
Double chanceEither team to win78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 11.57
Charlton vs Birmingham preview and prediction
The match
Birmingham travel to The Valley in the Championship on Saturday 7 March (16:00 WAT) to face Charlton. Charlton are 19th with 17 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Birmingham sit 1st on 29 points (top of the table). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Charlton's last 3: DDL Most recently they drew with West Brom 1–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Birmingham's last 3: LLW Most recently they lost to Middlesbrough 1–3 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.1 for Charlton and 1.3 for Birmingham. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 51%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Charlton to win at 3.40 – 33% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Charlton 1–1 Birmingham. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Charlton33%fair 3.05 · @3.40
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.25
Birmingham45%fair 2.22 · @2.14
2.44Expected goals
1.09Charlton xG
1.35Birmingham xG
51%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–29%
0–28%
From our goals model: Charlton 1.1 – 1.3 Birmingham expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Birmingham to win
45%
2.22
2.14
Double chance
Either team to win
78%
1.28
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
51%
1.96
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
69%
1.44
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
56%
1.80
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
76%
1.31
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Birmingham / FT Birmingham
25%
4.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
9%
11.57
–
Form
Charlton – last 3
DDL
24 Feb
@ West Brom
1–1
D
21 Feb
@ Southampton
1–1
D
17 Feb
vs Portsmouth
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Birmingham – last 3
LLW
2 Mar
vs Middlesbrough
1–3
L
25 Feb
@ Millwall
0–3
L
21 Feb
@ Norwich
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Charlton and Birmingham.
What is the prediction for Charlton vs Birmingham?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Charlton vs Birmingham?
On our numbers Charlton have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Birmingham 45%.
How many goals will there be in Charlton vs Birmingham?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Charlton vs Birmingham?
Our predicted score is Charlton 1–1 Birmingham, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Charlton vs Birmingham?
Charlton vs Birmingham (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at The Valley.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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