Value bet: Stoke City to win @ 3.90 – our chance 31% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultSwansea to win47% · @1.96
Double chanceEither team to win78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score50% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.55
Swansea vs Stoke City preview and prediction
The match
The Championship sees Swansea take on Stoke City on Saturday 7 March, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT) at Swansea.com Stadium. Swansea are 6th with 26 points from 15 games (in the top half), while Stoke City sit 3rd on 29 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Stoke City's last 3: WDL Most recently they beat Oxford United 2–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.3 for Swansea and 1.0 for Stoke City. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Swansea 47%, draw 22%, Stoke City 31%.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 1.90.
Value angle: Stoke City to win at 3.90 – 31% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Swansea 1–1 Stoke City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Swansea47%fair 2.12 · @1.96
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @3.30
Stoke City31%fair 3.25 · @3.90
2.35Expected goals
1.34Swansea xG
1.01Stoke City xG
50%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–110%
0–010%
2–19%
2–09%
From our goals model: Swansea 1.3 – 1.0 Stoke City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Swansea to win
47%
2.12
1.96
Double chance
Either team to win
78%
1.28
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
50%
2.00
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
68%
1.47
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
57%
1.76
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
77%
1.29
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time
46%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Swansea / FT Swansea
26%
3.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
11.55
–
Form
Swansea – last 2
DW
24 Feb
vs Preston
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Bristol City
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Stoke City – last 3
WDL
25 Feb
vs Oxford United
2–1
W
21 Feb
vs Leicester
2–2
D
15 Feb
vs Fulham
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Swansea and Stoke City.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Swansea vs Stoke City?
On our numbers Swansea have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Stoke City 31%.
How many goals will there be in Swansea vs Stoke City?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Swansea vs Stoke City?
Our predicted score is Swansea 1–1 Stoke City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Swansea vs Stoke City?
Swansea vs Stoke City (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Swansea.com Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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