Value bet: Crewe to win @ 3.30 – our chance 32% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSwindon Town to win ✗47% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.66
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.14
Swindon Town vs Crewe preview and prediction
The match
The League Two sees Swindon Town take on Crewe on Saturday 21 February, kicking off at 13:30 (WAT) at County Ground. Swindon Town are 13th with 19 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while Crewe sit 4th on 22 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.5 for Swindon Town and 1.2 for Crewe. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Swindon Town 47%, draw 20%, Crewe 32%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.66.
Value angle: Crewe to win at 3.30 – 32% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.24. Predicted score: Swindon Town 1–1 Crewe. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Swindon Town47%fair 2.11 · @2.00
Draw20%fair 4.92 · @3.60
Crewe32%fair 3.09 · @3.30
2.75Expected goals
1.54Swindon Town xG
1.21Crewe xG
59%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: Swindon Town 1.5 – 1.2 Crewe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Swindon Town to win✗
47%
2.11
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
1.66
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.24
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.36
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Swindon Town / FT Swindon Town✗
27%
3.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
10.14
–
Form
Swindon Town – last 1
W
17 Feb
@ Barnet
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Crewe – last 1
L
17 Feb
vs Fleetwood Town
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Swindon Town and Crewe.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.
Who will win Swindon Town vs Crewe?
On our numbers Swindon Town have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Crewe 32%.
How many goals will there be in Swindon Town vs Crewe?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Swindon Town vs Crewe?
Our predicted score is Swindon Town 1–1 Crewe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Swindon Town vs Crewe?
Swindon Town vs Crewe (League Two) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at County Ground.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Barrow2
Harrogate Town0
Bromley0