Value bet: Motherwell to win @ 2.35 – our chance 47% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultMotherwell to win47% · @2.35
Double chanceEither team to win79% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score58% · @1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals75% · @1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–112% · fair 8.08
ST Mirren vs Motherwell preview and prediction
The match
Motherwell travel to The SMISA Stadium in the Premiership on Saturday 21 February (20:30 WAT) to face ST Mirren. ST Mirren are 8th with 14 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Motherwell sit 9th on 13 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.0 for ST Mirren and 1.4 for Motherwell. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: ST Mirren 32%, draw 21%, Motherwell 47%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.77.
Value angle: Motherwell to win at 2.35 – 47% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.27. Predicted score: ST Mirren 1–1 Motherwell. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
ST Mirren32%fair 3.16 · @2.85
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.40
Motherwell47%fair 2.11 · @2.35
2.40Expected goals
1.04ST Mirren xG
1.36Motherwell xG
58%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–09%
0–09%
1–29%
0–28%
From our goals model: ST Mirren 1.0 – 1.4 Motherwell expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Motherwell to win
47%
2.11
2.35 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
79%
1.27
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
58%
1.73
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
70%
1.43
1.31
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
55%
1.82
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
75%
1.33
1.27
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Motherwell / FT Motherwell
26%
3.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
12%
8.08
–
Form
ST Mirren
No recent results on record.
Motherwell – last 2
LW
18 Feb
@ Aberdeen
0–2
L
15 Feb
vs Aberdeen
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between ST Mirren and Motherwell.
What is the prediction for ST Mirren vs Motherwell?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.
Who will win ST Mirren vs Motherwell?
On our numbers ST Mirren have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Motherwell 47%.
How many goals will there be in ST Mirren vs Motherwell?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for ST Mirren vs Motherwell?
Our predicted score is ST Mirren 1–1 Motherwell, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is ST Mirren vs Motherwell?
ST Mirren vs Motherwell (Premiership) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at The SMISA Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
