Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom prediction & analysis
63%
Footrivo pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
2
Value bet: Polonia Bytom to win @ 2.50 – our chance 43% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPolonia Bytom to win ✗43% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.44
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.43
Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom preview and prediction
The match
Polonia Bytom travel to Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu in the I Liga on Sunday 24 May (15:30 WAT) to face Stal Mielec. Stal Mielec are 11th with 19 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while Polonia Bytom sit 3rd on 24 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Stal Mielec's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to Chrobry Głogów 1–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Polonia Bytom's last 5: LWLDL Most recently they lost to Slask Wroclaw 1–3 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Stal Mielec arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.5 for Stal Mielec and 1.7 for Polonia Bytom. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Stal Mielec 36%, draw 21%, Polonia Bytom 43%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.44.
Value angle: Polonia Bytom to win at 2.50 – 43% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 63% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Stal Mielec 1–1 Polonia Bytom. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Stal Mielec36%fair 2.78 · @2.35
Draw21%fair 4.68 · @3.65
Polonia Bytom43%fair 2.35 · @2.50
3.16Expected goals
1.50Stal Mielec xG
1.66Polonia Bytom xG
63%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–17%
2–27%
1–06%
From our goals model: Stal Mielec 1.5 – 1.7 Polonia Bytom expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Polonia Bytom to win✗
43%
2.35
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.59
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.65
1.55
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
38%
2.60
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Polonia Bytom / FT Polonia Bytom✗
25%
4.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.43
–
Form
Stal Mielec – last 6
LWWWWL
17 Apr
@ Chrobry Głogów
1–2
L
6 Apr
@ Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs Wieczysta Kraków
3–1
W
6 Mar
vs Tychy 71
4–0
W
1 Mar
@ Odra Opole
2–0
W
23 Feb
vs ŁKS Łódź
1–2
L
2.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Polonia Bytom – last 6
LWLDLD
17 May
vs Slask Wroclaw
1–3
L
4 May
vs Polonia Warszawa
3–2
W
23 Apr
@ Wieczysta Kraków
3–4
L
7 Apr
@ Miedz Legnica
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Ruch Chorzów
0–1
L
22 Feb
vs Pogoń Siedlce
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Stal Mielec and Polonia Bytom.
What is the prediction for Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom?
On our numbers Stal Mielec have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Polonia Bytom 43%.
How many goals will there be in Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom?
Our predicted score is Stal Mielec 1–1 Polonia Bytom, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom?
Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom (I Liga) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Wieczysta Kraków1
Górnik Łęczna1
Znicz Pruszków3
Slask Wroclaw0
Tychy 713
Wisla Krakow2