Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: AZ Alkmaar to win @ 2.42 – our chance 46% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAZ Alkmaar to win ✗46% · @2.42
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.96
Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar preview and prediction
The match
AZ Alkmaar travel to Euroborg in the Eredivisie on Sunday 22 March (16:45 WAT) to face Groningen. Groningen are 9th with 15 points from 12 games (in the top half), while AZ Alkmaar sit 5th on 23 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Groningen's last 3: DLL Most recently they drew with PEC Zwolle 1–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
AZ Alkmaar's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Sparta Praha 4–0 away. They are scoring freely – 2.7 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
AZ Alkmaar arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.4 for Groningen and 1.7 for AZ Alkmaar. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 62%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Groningen 34%, draw 20%, AZ Alkmaar 46%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.50.
Value angle: AZ Alkmaar to win at 2.42 – 46% on our numbers against 41% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Groningen 1–1 AZ Alkmaar. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Groningen34%fair 2.98 · @2.58
Draw20%fair 4.97 · @3.70
AZ Alkmaar46%fair 2.16 · @2.42
3.02Expected goals
1.36Groningen xG
1.66AZ Alkmaar xG
62%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
0–27%
1–07%
From our goals model: Groningen 1.4 – 1.7 AZ Alkmaar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AZ Alkmaar to win✗
46%
2.16
2.42 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.61
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.26
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.50
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.54
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AZ Alkmaar / FT AZ Alkmaar✗
27%
3.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.96
–
Form
Groningen – last 3
DLL
13 Mar
@ PEC Zwolle
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ FC Volendam
2–3
L
22 Feb
@ Twente
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
AZ Alkmaar – last 6
WWWWLW
19 Mar
@ Sparta Praha
4–0
W
15 Mar
vs Heracles
4–0
W
12 Mar
vs Sparta Praha
2–1
W
4 Mar
vs Telstar
2–1
W
1 Mar
@ Utrecht
0–2
L
26 Feb
vs FC Noah
4–0
W
2.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Groningen and AZ Alkmaar.
What is the prediction for Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
On our numbers Groningen have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 20% and AZ Alkmaar 46%.
How many goals will there be in Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our predicted score is Groningen 1–1 AZ Alkmaar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 16:45 (West Africa Time) at Euroborg.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
