Value bet: AZ Alkmaar to win @ 3.05 – our chance 35% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultUtrecht to win ✓41% · @2.26
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.37
Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar preview and prediction
The match
Utrecht host AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie on Sunday 1 March, with kick-off at 16:45 (WAT) at Stadion Galgenwaard. Utrecht are 14th with 12 points from 12 games (in the bottom half), while AZ Alkmaar sit 5th on 23 points (in the top half).
Form guide
AZ Alkmaar's last 3: WWL Most recently they beat FC Noah 4–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.5 for Utrecht and 1.4 for AZ Alkmaar. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 54% and both teams to score at 62%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Utrecht 41%, draw 24%, AZ Alkmaar 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.60.
Value angle: AZ Alkmaar to win at 3.05 – 35% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Utrecht 1–1 AZ Alkmaar. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Utrecht41%fair 2.42 · @2.26
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.35
AZ Alkmaar35%fair 2.87 · @3.05
2.92Expected goals
1.53Utrecht xG
1.39AZ Alkmaar xG
62%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–28%
0–17%
2–06%
From our goals model: Utrecht 1.5 – 1.4 AZ Alkmaar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Utrecht to win✓
41%
2.42
2.26
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.61
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.40
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Utrecht / FT Utrecht✓
24%
4.12
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.37
–
Form
Utrecht – last 1
D
22 Feb
vs PEC Zwolle
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
AZ Alkmaar – last 3
WWL
26 Feb
vs FC Noah
4–0
W
22 Feb
vs Sparta Rotterdam
3–1
W
19 Feb
@ FC Noah
0–1
L
2.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Utrecht and AZ Alkmaar.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar?
On our numbers Utrecht have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and AZ Alkmaar 35%.
How many goals will there be in Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our predicted score is Utrecht 1–1 AZ Alkmaar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar?
Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 16:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Galgenwaard.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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