Value bet: Motor Lublin to win @ 2.64 – our chance 40% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMotor Lublin to win ✗40% · @2.64
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.66
Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze preview and prediction
The match
Motor Lublin host Gornik Zabrze in the Ekstraklasa on Sunday 8 March, with kick-off at 12:15 (WAT) at Motor Lublin Arena. Motor Lublin are 10th with 19 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while Gornik Zabrze sit 2nd on 31 points (in the top four). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Motor Lublin and 1.4 for Gornik Zabrze. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Motor Lublin 40%, draw 23%, Gornik Zabrze 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Motor Lublin to win at 2.64 – 40% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Motor Lublin 1–1 Gornik Zabrze. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Motor Lublin40%fair 2.48 · @2.64
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @3.50
Gornik Zabrze37%fair 2.70 · @2.46
2.84Expected goals
1.46Motor Lublin xG
1.38Gornik Zabrze xG
60%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
2–19%
1–09%
1–28%
0–18%
2–06%
From our goals model: Motor Lublin 1.5 – 1.4 Gornik Zabrze expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Motor Lublin to win✗
40%
2.48
2.64 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.68
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.38
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Motor Lublin / FT Motor Lublin✗
23%
4.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.66
–
Form
Motor Lublin – last 2
WL
20 Feb
@ Piast Gliwice
2–1
W
15 Feb
vs Lechia Gdansk
2–3
L
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Gornik Zabrze – last 2
WD
4 Mar
@ Lech Poznan
1–0
W
16 Feb
@ Nieciecza
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Motor Lublin and Gornik Zabrze.
What is the prediction for Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze?
On our numbers Motor Lublin have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Gornik Zabrze 37%.
How many goals will there be in Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our predicted score is Motor Lublin 1–1 Gornik Zabrze, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze (Ekstraklasa) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 12:15 (West Africa Time) at Motor Lublin Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
