Value bet: Atalanta to win @ 3.35 – our chance 38% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +28%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtalanta to win38% · @3.35
Double chanceEither team to win76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score61% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals72% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–110% · fair 9.65
AC Milan vs Atalanta preview and prediction
The match
Atalanta travel to Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in the Serie A on Sunday 10 May (19:45 WAT) to face AC Milan. AC Milan are 4th with 24 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Atalanta sit 12th on 14 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
AC Milan's last 5: LWLLW Most recently they lost to Sassuolo 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Atalanta's last 5: LWWLL Most recently they lost to Cagliari 2–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for AC Milan and 1.2 for Atalanta. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: AC Milan 38%, draw 24%, Atalanta 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Atalanta to win at 3.35 – 38% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.38. Predicted score: AC Milan 1–1 Atalanta. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AC Milan38%fair 2.63 · @2.12
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @3.30
Atalanta38%fair 2.63 · @3.35
2.48Expected goals
1.24AC Milan xG
1.24Atalanta xG
61%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
0–08%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: AC Milan 1.2 – 1.2 Atalanta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atalanta to win
38%
2.63
3.35 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
76%
1.31
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
61%
1.65
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
72%
1.38
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
52%
1.94
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
72%
1.38
1.38
Half-time result
Level at half-time
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atalanta / FT Atalanta
21%
4.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
10%
9.65
–
Form
AC Milan – last 6
LWLLWL
3 May
@ Sassuolo
0–2
L
19 Apr
@ Hellas Verona
1–0
W
6 Apr
@ Napoli
0–1
L
15 Mar
@ Lazio
0–1
L
1 Mar
@ Cremonese
2–0
W
22 Feb
vs Parma
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Atalanta – last 6
LWWLLD
27 Apr
@ Cagliari
2–3
L
6 Apr
@ Lecce
3–0
W
22 Mar
vs Hellas Verona
1–0
W
18 Mar
@ Bayern München
1–4
L
10 Mar
vs Bayern München
1–6
L
4 Mar
@ Lazio
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AC Milan and Atalanta.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win AC Milan vs Atalanta?
On our numbers AC Milan have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Atalanta 38%.
How many goals will there be in AC Milan vs Atalanta?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AC Milan vs Atalanta?
Our predicted score is AC Milan 1–1 Atalanta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is AC Milan vs Atalanta?
AC Milan vs Atalanta (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Hellas Verona0
Cremonese3
Pisa0