Value bet: Genoa to win @ 3.65 – our chance 30% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFiorentina to win ✗49% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.53
Fiorentina vs Genoa preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Fiorentina take on Genoa on Sunday 10 May, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at Stadio Artemio Franchi. Fiorentina are 15th with 9 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Genoa sit 13th on 13 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Fiorentina's last 5: LDDWW Most recently they lost to AS Roma 0–4 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Genoa's last 5: LWLLW Most recently they lost to Como 0–2 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.5 for Fiorentina and 1.1 for Genoa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Fiorentina 49%, draw 22%, Genoa 30%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Genoa to win at 3.65 – 30% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Fiorentina 1–1 Genoa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fiorentina49%fair 2.05 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.35
Genoa30%fair 3.38 · @3.65
2.53Expected goals
1.47Fiorentina xG
1.06Genoa xG
53%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–012%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Fiorentina 1.5 – 1.1 Genoa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fiorentina to win✗
49%
2.05
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.87
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.87
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fiorentina / FT Fiorentina✗
28%
3.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.53
–
Form
Fiorentina – last 6
LDDWWL
4 May
@ AS Roma
0–4
L
26 Apr
vs Sassuolo
0–0
D
20 Apr
@ Lecce
1–1
D
16 Apr
vs Crystal Palace
2–1
W
13 Apr
vs Lazio
1–0
W
9 Apr
@ Crystal Palace
0–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Genoa – last 6
LWLLWW
26 Apr
vs Como
0–2
L
12 Apr
vs Sassuolo
2–1
W
6 Apr
@ Juventus
0–2
L
20 Mar
vs Udinese
0–2
L
15 Mar
@ Hellas Verona
2–0
W
8 Mar
vs AS Roma
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fiorentina and Genoa.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Fiorentina vs Genoa?
On our numbers Fiorentina have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Genoa 30%.
How many goals will there be in Fiorentina vs Genoa?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fiorentina vs Genoa?
Our predicted score is Fiorentina 1–1 Genoa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Fiorentina vs Genoa?
Fiorentina vs Genoa (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Hellas Verona0
Cremonese3
Pisa0