Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: AC Milan to win @ 1.70 – our chance 67% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAC Milan to win ✗67% · @1.70
Double chanceAC Milan or draw ✗86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.21
Sassuolo vs AC Milan preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Sassuolo take on AC Milan on Sunday 3 May, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. Sassuolo are 17th with 8 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while AC Milan sit 4th on 24 points (in the top four). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sassuolo's last 5: DWLLL Most recently they drew with Fiorentina 0–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
AC Milan's last 5: WLLWL Most recently they beat Hellas Verona 1–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.7 for Sassuolo and 1.9 for AC Milan. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sassuolo 14%, draw 19%, AC Milan 67%.
Safer route: AC Milan or draw (86%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.70.
Value angle: AC Milan to win at 1.70 – 67% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was AC Milan or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Sassuolo 0–1 AC Milan. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sassuolo14%fair 7.01 · @4.40
Draw19%fair 5.26 · @3.90
AC Milan67%fair 1.50 · @1.70
2.62Expected goals
0.71Sassuolo xG
1.91AC Milan xG
57%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–213%
1–110%
1–29%
0–38%
0–07%
From our goals model: Sassuolo 0.7 – 1.9 AC Milan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AC Milan to win✗
67%
1.50
1.70 ▲
Double chance
AC Milan or draw✗
86%
1.17
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.92
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.42
Half-time result
AC Milan ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AC Milan / FT AC Milan✗
42%
2.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.21
–
Form
Sassuolo – last 6
DWLLLW
26 Apr
@ Fiorentina
0–0
D
17 Apr
vs Como
2–1
W
12 Apr
@ Genoa
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Bologna
0–1
L
9 Mar
@ Lazio
1–2
L
1 Mar
vs Atalanta
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
AC Milan – last 6
WLLWLD
19 Apr
@ Hellas Verona
1–0
W
6 Apr
@ Napoli
0–1
L
15 Mar
@ Lazio
0–1
L
1 Mar
@ Cremonese
2–0
W
22 Feb
vs Parma
0–1
L
18 Feb
vs Como
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sassuolo and AC Milan.
Our pick is AC Milan or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Sassuolo vs AC Milan?
On our numbers Sassuolo have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 19% and AC Milan 67%.
How many goals will there be in Sassuolo vs AC Milan?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sassuolo vs AC Milan?
Our predicted score is Sassuolo 0–1 AC Milan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Sassuolo vs AC Milan?
Sassuolo vs AC Milan (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Hellas Verona