Value bet: Bologna to win @ 1.83 – our chance 64% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBologna to win ✗64% · @1.83
Double chanceBologna or draw ✓84% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.69
Bologna vs Cagliari preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Bologna take on Cagliari on Sunday 3 May, kicking off at 11:30 (WAT) at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Bologna are 8th with 17 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Cagliari sit 9th on 16 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Bologna's last 5: LLWLD Most recently they lost to Aston Villa 0–4 away. They average 1.2 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Cagliari's last 5: WLLLD Most recently they beat Atalanta 3–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Bologna arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Bologna and 0.7 for Cagliari. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bologna 64%, draw 20%, Cagliari 16%.
Safer route: Bologna or draw (84%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.93.
Value angle: Bologna to win at 1.83 – 64% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Bologna 1–0 Cagliari. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bologna64%fair 1.56 · @1.83
Draw20%fair 4.91 · @3.40
Cagliari16%fair 6.40 · @4.33
2.47Expected goals
1.76Bologna xG
0.70Cagliari xG
52%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: Bologna 1.8 – 0.7 Cagliari expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bologna to win✗
64%
1.56
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Bologna or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
1.93
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.44
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Half-time result
Bologna ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bologna / FT Bologna✗
39%
2.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.69
–
Form
Bologna – last 6
LLWLDW
16 Apr
@ Aston Villa
0–4
L
9 Apr
vs Aston Villa
1–3
L
5 Apr
@ Cremonese
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs Lazio
0–2
L
19 Mar
@ AS Roma
3–3
D
15 Mar
@ Sassuolo
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Cagliari – last 6
WLLLDL
27 Apr
vs Atalanta
3–2
W
17 Apr
@ Inter
0–3
L
20 Mar
vs Napoli
0–1
L
15 Mar
@ Pisa
1–3
L
27 Feb
@ Parma
1–1
D
16 Feb
vs Lecce
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bologna and Cagliari.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Bologna vs Cagliari?
On our numbers Bologna have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Cagliari 16%.
How many goals will there be in Bologna vs Cagliari?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bologna vs Cagliari?
Our predicted score is Bologna 1–0 Cagliari, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Bologna vs Cagliari?
Bologna vs Cagliari (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 11:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Hellas Verona