Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Como to win @ 1.85 – our chance 63% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultComo to win ✓63% · @1.85
Double chanceComo or draw ✓88% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.07
Genoa vs Como preview and prediction
The match
Genoa host Como in the Serie A on Sunday 26 April, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. Genoa are 13th with 13 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Como sit 5th on 23 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Genoa's last 5: WLLWW Most recently they beat Sassuolo 2–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Como's last 5: LLDWW Most recently they lost to Inter 2–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Genoa arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.7 for Genoa and 1.9 for Como. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 48%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Genoa 12%, draw 25%, Como 63%.
Safer route: Como or draw (88%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.90.
Value angle: Como to win at 1.85 – 63% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Como or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Genoa 0–1 Como. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Genoa12%fair 8.28 · @3.95
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.60
Como63%fair 1.58 · @1.85
2.58Expected goals
0.71Genoa xG
1.86Como xG
48%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–213%
1–110%
1–29%
0–38%
0–08%
From our goals model: Genoa 0.7 – 1.9 Como expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Como to win✓
63%
1.58
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Como or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.90
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.28
Half-time result
Como ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Como / FT Como✓
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.07
–
Form
Genoa – last 6
WLLWWW
12 Apr
vs Sassuolo
2–1
W
6 Apr
@ Juventus
0–2
L
20 Mar
vs Udinese
0–2
L
15 Mar
@ Hellas Verona
2–0
W
8 Mar
vs AS Roma
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Torino
3–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Como – last 6
LLDWWD
21 Apr
@ Inter
2–3
L
17 Apr
@ Sassuolo
1–2
L
6 Apr
@ Udinese
0–0
D
22 Mar
vs Pisa
5–0
W
15 Mar
vs AS Roma
2–1
W
3 Mar
vs Inter
0–0
D
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Genoa and Como.
Our pick is Como or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Genoa vs Como?
On our numbers Genoa have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Como 63%.
How many goals will there be in Genoa vs Como?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Genoa vs Como?
Our predicted score is Genoa 0–1 Como, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Genoa vs Como?
Genoa vs Como (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
