Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Fiorentina to win @ 1.91 – our chance 59% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFiorentina to win ✗59% · @1.91
Double chanceFiorentina or draw ✓82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.86
Fiorentina vs Sassuolo preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Fiorentina take on Sassuolo on Sunday 26 April, kicking off at 11:30 (WAT) at Stadio Artemio Franchi. Fiorentina are 15th with 9 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Sassuolo sit 17th on 8 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Fiorentina's last 5: DWWLW Most recently they drew with Lecce 1–1 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Sassuolo's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Como 2–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Fiorentina arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Fiorentina and 0.9 for Sassuolo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 57%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Fiorentina to win at 1.91 – 59% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Fiorentina or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Fiorentina 1–0 Sassuolo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fiorentina59%fair 1.70 · @1.91
Draw23%fair 4.32 · @3.30
Sassuolo18%fair 5.57 · @4.10
2.63Expected goals
1.77Fiorentina xG
0.86Sassuolo xG
57%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
0–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: Fiorentina 1.8 – 0.9 Sassuolo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fiorentina to win✗
59%
1.70
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Fiorentina or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.74
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.36
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.35
Half-time result
Fiorentina ahead at half-time✗
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fiorentina / FT Fiorentina✗
37%
2.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.86
–
Form
Fiorentina – last 6
DWWLWW
20 Apr
@ Lecce
1–1
D
16 Apr
vs Crystal Palace
2–1
W
13 Apr
vs Lazio
1–0
W
9 Apr
@ Crystal Palace
0–3
L
19 Mar
@ Raków Częstochowa
2–1
W
16 Mar
@ Cremonese
4–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Sassuolo – last 6
WLLLWW
17 Apr
vs Como
2–1
W
12 Apr
@ Genoa
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Bologna
0–1
L
9 Mar
@ Lazio
1–2
L
1 Mar
vs Atalanta
2–1
W
20 Feb
vs Verona
3–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fiorentina and Sassuolo.
What is the prediction for Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Our pick is Fiorentina or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
On our numbers Fiorentina have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sassuolo 18%.
How many goals will there be in Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Our predicted score is Fiorentina 1–0 Sassuolo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Fiorentina vs Sassuolo (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 11:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
