Value bet: Fiorentina to win @ 1.73 – our chance 61% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFiorentina to win ✗61% · @1.73
Double chanceFiorentina or draw ✓83% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.87
Fiorentina vs Parma preview and prediction
The match
Fiorentina host Parma in the Serie A on Sunday 8 March, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Stadio Artemio Franchi. Fiorentina are 15th with 9 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Parma sit 16th on 8 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Fiorentina's last 4: LLWW Most recently they lost to Udinese 0–3 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Parma's last 3: DWW Most recently they drew with Cagliari 1–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Parma arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Fiorentina and 0.8 for Parma. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 49%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Fiorentina 61%, draw 21%, Parma 17%.
Safer route: Fiorentina or draw (83%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Fiorentina to win at 1.73 – 61% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Fiorentina 1–0 Parma. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fiorentina61%fair 1.63 · @1.73
Draw21%fair 4.69 · @3.50
Parma17%fair 5.80 · @4.85
2.47Expected goals
1.71Fiorentina xG
0.75Parma xG
49%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Fiorentina 1.7 – 0.8 Parma expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fiorentina to win✗
61%
1.63
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Fiorentina or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.98
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fiorentina / FT Fiorentina✗
37%
2.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.87
–
Form
Fiorentina – last 4
LLWW
2 Mar
@ Udinese
0–3
L
26 Feb
vs Jagiellonia
0–3
L
23 Feb
vs Pisa
1–0
W
19 Feb
@ Jagiellonia
3–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Parma – last 3
DWW
27 Feb
vs Cagliari
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ AC Milan
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs Verona
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fiorentina and Parma.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Fiorentina vs Parma?
On our numbers Fiorentina have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Parma 17%.
How many goals will there be in Fiorentina vs Parma?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fiorentina vs Parma?
Our predicted score is Fiorentina 1–0 Parma, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Fiorentina vs Parma?
Fiorentina vs Parma (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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