Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Italy U21 to win @ 1.80 – our chance 64% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultItaly U21 to win ✓64% · @1.80
Double chanceItaly U21 or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.18
Italy U21 vs Poland U21 preview and prediction
The match
Italy U21 host Poland U21 in the UEFA U21 Championship Qualification on Monday 5 October, with kick-off at 17:15 (WAT) at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia. Italy U21 are 1st with 24 points from 10 games, while Poland U21 sit 3rd on 18 points.
Form guide
Italy U21's last 4: WWWW Most recently they beat Armenia U21 1–0 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Poland U21's last 3: WWW Most recently they beat Sweden U21 3–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.7 goals a game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.2 for Italy U21 and 1.0 for Poland U21. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 64% and both teams to score at 59%.
Value angle: Italy U21 to win at 1.80 – 64% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Italy U21 or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Italy U21 2–1 Poland U21. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Italy U2164%fair 1.56 · @1.80
Draw20%fair 5.08 · @3.25
Poland U2116%fair 6.13 · @3.80
3.28Expected goals
2.23Italy U21 xG
1.05Poland U21 xG
59%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–09%
1–19%
1–08%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Italy U21 2.2 – 1.0 Poland U21 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Italy U21 to win✓
64%
1.56
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Italy U21 or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
58%
1.71
–
Half-time result
Italy U21 ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Italy U21 / FT Italy U21✓
42%
2.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.18
–
Form
Italy U21 – last 4
WWWW
1 Oct
@ Armenia U21
1–0
W
8 Jun
vs Albania U21
1–0
W
31 Mar
@ Sweden U21
4–0
W
26 Mar
vs North Macedonia U21
4–0
W
2.5Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Poland U21 – last 3
WWW
30 Sep
vs Sweden U21
3–0
W
31 Mar
@ Montenegro U21
1–0
W
27 Mar
vs Armenia U21
4–1
W
2.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Italy U21 and Poland U21.
What is the prediction for Italy U21 vs Poland U21?
Our pick is Italy U21 or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Italy U21 vs Poland U21?
On our numbers Italy U21 have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Poland U21 16%.
How many goals will there be in Italy U21 vs Poland U21?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Italy U21 vs Poland U21?
Our predicted score is Italy U21 2–1 Poland U21, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Italy U21 vs Poland U21?
Italy U21 vs Poland U21 (UEFA U21 Championship Qualification) kicks off on Monday 5 October 2026 at 17:15 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Montenegro U211
Armenia U211
Sweden U212
North Macedonia U210