Italy U21 travel to FFA Academy Stadium in the UEFA U21 Championship Qualification on Thursday 1 October (17:30 WAT) to face Armenia U21. Armenia U21 are 6th with 3 points from 10 games, while Italy U21 sit 1st on 24 points. A gap of 21 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Italy U21's last 3: WWW Most recently they beat Albania U21 1–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 3.0 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 0.7 for Armenia U21 and 2.8 for Italy U21. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score in 54% of our simulations.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 54% chance at odds of 2.10, above our fair price of 1.85, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Armenia U21 1–2 Italy U21. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Armenia U216%fair 17.03 · @23.00
Draw14%fair 6.96 · @11.00
Italy U2180%fair 1.25 · @1.06
3.56Expected goals
0.73Armenia U21 xG
2.83Italy U21 xG
54%Both score
69%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–211%
0–311%
1–28%
0–18%
1–38%
0–48%
From our goals model: Armenia U21 0.7 – 2.8 Italy U21 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Italy U21 to win✓
80%
1.25
1.06
Double chance
Italy U21 or draw✓
94%
1.06
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
87%
1.15
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
–
Half-time result
Italy U21 ahead at half-time✗
60%
1.65
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Italy U21 / FT Italy U21✗
57%
1.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
11%
8.75
–
Form
Armenia U21 – last 2
LL
31 Mar
vs North Macedonia U21
0–2
L
27 Mar
@ Poland U21
1–4
L
0.5Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Italy U21 – last 3
WWW
8 Jun
vs Albania U21
1–0
W
31 Mar
@ Sweden U21
4–0
W
26 Mar
vs North Macedonia U21
4–0
W
3.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Armenia U21 and Italy U21.
What is the prediction for Armenia U21 vs Italy U21?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.10.
Who will win Armenia U21 vs Italy U21?
On our numbers Armenia U21 have a 6% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Italy U21 80%.
How many goals will there be in Armenia U21 vs Italy U21?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Armenia U21 vs Italy U21?
Our predicted score is Armenia U21 1–2 Italy U21, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Armenia U21 vs Italy U21?
Armenia U21 vs Italy U21 (UEFA U21 Championship Qualification) kicks off on Thursday 1 October 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at FFA Academy Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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