Defensor Sporting vs Penarol prediction & analysis
73%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.37 · bookmaker 1.33
8/10Rating
1.33Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenarol to win59% · @1.60
Double chancePenarol or draw82% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210% · fair 10.49
Defensor Sporting vs Penarol preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División Apertura sees Defensor Sporting take on Penarol on Monday 16 November, kicking off at 00:00 (WAT) at Estadio Luis Franzini. Defensor Sporting are 13th with 12 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Penarol sit 5th on 22 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Defensor Sporting's last 5: WDLLL Most recently they beat Progreso 2–0 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Penarol's last 5: DLDLD Most recently they drew with Wanderers 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 24 May 2026, finished Defensor Sporting 0–2 Penarol. Across their last 2 meetings Defensor Sporting have won 0, Penarol 1, with 1 draw and 2.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 0.8 for Defensor Sporting and 1.7 for Penarol. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 51%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Defensor Sporting 0–1 Penarol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Defensor Sporting18%fair 5.43 · @4.75
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.60
Penarol59%fair 1.69 · @1.60
2.52Expected goals
0.84Defensor Sporting xG
1.68Penarol xG
51%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–111%
0–211%
1–210%
0–08%
1–07%
From our goals model: Defensor Sporting 0.8 – 1.7 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-2%
+26%
Goals conceded vs average
+24%
-30%
Our expected goals here
0.88
1.68
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
On our numbers Defensor Sporting have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Penarol 59%.
How many goals will there be in Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Defensor Sporting 0–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
Defensor Sporting vs Penarol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Monday 16 November 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Luis Franzini.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
