Progreso vs Defensor Sporting preview and prediction
The match
Progreso host Defensor Sporting in the Primera División Apertura on Sunday 1 November, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at Parque Abraham Paladino. Progreso are 7th with 19 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Defensor Sporting sit 13th on 12 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Progreso's last 5: WWDLW Most recently they beat Wanderers 1–0 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Defensor Sporting's last 5: DLLLL Most recently they drew with Racing Montevideo 3–3 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Progreso arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 27 April 2026, finished Defensor Sporting 1–0 Progreso.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Progreso and 1.1 for Defensor Sporting. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 56%.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 56% chance at odds of 1.80. Predicted score: Progreso 1–1 Defensor Sporting. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Progreso38%fair 2.61 · @2.62
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.00
Defensor Sporting36%fair 2.75 · @2.62
2.26Expected goals
1.15Progreso xG
1.11Defensor Sporting xG
56%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–112%
0–010%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Progreso 1.1 – 1.1 Defensor Sporting expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?
On our numbers Progreso have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Defensor Sporting 36%.
How many goals will there be in Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?
Our predicted score is Progreso 1–1 Defensor Sporting, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Parque Abraham Paladino.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
