FA Cup · England · York Community Stadium
York
Northampton
York vs Northampton prediction & analysis
York or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: York to win @ 1.83 – our chance 65% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: York 1.9 – 0.8 Northampton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
York are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 15% for Northampton.
York have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (1W 3D 2L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.8 per game. Northampton have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded.
We expect around 2.7 goals (1.9 for York, 0.8 for Northampton). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 57%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, York have won 0, Northampton have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is York or draw at a 85% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is better than our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, York to win at 1.83 is our value angle (65% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | York to win ✓ | 65% | 1.54 | 1.83 ▲ |
| Double chance | York or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.17 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 57% | 1.75 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.34 | 1.25 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 50% | 2.00 | 1.91 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 71% | 1.40 | 1.33 |
| Half-time result | York ahead at half-time ✓ | 46% | 2.19 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT York / FT York ✓ | 41% | 2.44 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 13% | 7.60 | – |
Form
York – last 6
| 31 Oct | @ Grimsby | 2–5 | L |
| 27 Oct | @ Barnet | 1–3 | L |
| 24 Oct | vs Port Vale | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Oct | vs Accrington ST | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | @ Newport County | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Northampton | 1–1 | D |
Northampton – last 6
| 3 Nov | vs Oldham | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Oct | @ Accrington ST | 1–1 | D |
| 24 Oct | vs Colchester | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Oct | vs Tranmere | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Oct | @ Grimsby | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | @ York | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 10 Oct 2026 | York v Northampton | 1–1 |
More FA Cup predictions
Accrington ST0
Wycombe2
U3.5Under 3.5 goals
64%@1.50
✓
FT
Barnet3
Tranmere0
U3.5Under 3.5 goals
64%@1.50
✓
FT
Boreham Wood0
Wigan3
1XBoreham Wood or draw
88%@1.22
✗
FT
Bradford7
Marine0
1Bradford to win
74%@1.30
✓
FT
Bromley0
Rotherham2
1XBromley or draw
82%@1.30
✗
FT
Burton Albion4
AFC Rushden & Diamonds0
O2.5Over 2.5 goals
70%@1.33
✓
FT
Carlisle1
Salford City0
GGBoth teams to score
63%@1.50
✗
FT
Cheltenham2
FC Halifax Town0
1Cheltenham to win
65%@1.90
✓
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for York vs Northampton?
Our pick is York or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win York vs Northampton?
On our numbers York have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Northampton 15%.
How many goals will there be in York vs Northampton?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
When is York vs Northampton?
York vs Northampton (FA Cup) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at York Community Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.