FA Cup · England · Pirelli Stadium

Burton Albion

LWDDL
4–0
FT

AFC Rushden & Diamonds

WWWWL

Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds prediction & analysis

70%
Footrivo pick

Over 2.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.43 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓

7/10Rating
1.33Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.38 – our chance 51% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Quick tips for this match

ResultBurton Albion to win ✓76% · @1.08
Double chanceBurton Albion or draw ✓93% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.38
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓70% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.02

Win chances

Burton Albion76%fair 1.31 · @1.08
Draw17%fair 6.04 · @10.00
AFC Rushden & Diamonds7%fair 13.76 · @21.00
3.49Expected goals
2.69Burton Albion xG
0.79AFC Rushden & Diamonds xG
51%Both score
70%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

2–011%
3–010%
2–19%
1–08%
3–18%
4–07%

From our goals model: Burton Albion 2.7 – 0.8 AFC Rushden & Diamonds expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Burton Albion are clear favourites at home with a 76% chance of winning, against 7% for AFC Rushden & Diamonds.

Burton Albion have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (1W 3D 2L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.0 per game. AFC Rushden & Diamonds have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 2.2 scored and 1.3 conceded. AFC Rushden & Diamonds come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 3.5 goals (2.7 for Burton Albion, 0.8 for AFC Rushden & Diamonds). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11%), 3–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%).

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 70% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.33 is close to our fair price of 1.43. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.38 is our value angle (51% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultBurton Albion to win ✓76%1.311.08
Double chanceBurton Albion or draw ✓93%1.081.01
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗51%1.972.38 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓86%1.161.10
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓70%1.431.33
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗52%1.921.83
Half-time resultBurton Albion ahead at half-time ✓58%1.74–
Half-time / full-timeHT Burton Albion / FT Burton Albion ✓54%1.86–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11%9.02–

Form

Burton Albion – last 6

LWDDLD
31 Oct@ Wycombe0–2L
24 Octvs Leyton Orient2–1W
20 Octvs Bradford0–0D
17 Oct@ Peterborough2–2D
10 Oct@ Doncaster0–1L
6 Oct@ Grimsby0–0D
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

AFC Rushden & Diamonds – last 6

WWWWLD
17 Octvs Morecambe2–1W
3 Octvs Braintree2–1W
19 Sepvs Peterborough Sports3–1W
5 Sep@ Desborough Town3–0W
29 Aug@ Chasetown1–3L
10 Julvs Milton Keynes Irish2–2D
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Burton Albion and AFC Rushden & Diamonds.

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Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.

Who will win Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds?

On our numbers Burton Albion have a 76% chance of winning, the draw 17% and AFC Rushden & Diamonds 7%.

How many goals will there be in Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds?

We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

When is Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds?

Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds (FA Cup) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Pirelli Stadium.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.