FA Cup · England · Alexandra Stadium
Crewe
AFC Wimbledon
Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
Value bet: AFC Wimbledon to win @ 3.10 – our chance 39% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Crewe 1.3 – 1.3 AFC Wimbledon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Crewe and AFC Wimbledon on our numbers – 37% for the home side, 39% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Crewe have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.0 per game. AFC Wimbledon have 1 points from their last 6 (0W 1D 5L), averaging 0.7 scored and 2.5 conceded. Crewe come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.3 for Crewe, 1.3 for AFC Wimbledon). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 56%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (10%), 1–0 (10%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 73% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.30 is close to our fair price of 1.36. For a bigger price, AFC Wimbledon to win at 3.10 is our value angle (39% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | AFC Wimbledon to win ✗ | 39% | 2.56 | 3.10 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 56% | 1.78 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.37 | 1.28 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 53% | 1.90 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.36 | 1.30 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 43% | 2.30 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT AFC Wimbledon / FT AFC Wimbledon ✗ | 22% | 4.59 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 10% | 9.98 | – |
Form
Crewe – last 6
| 31 Oct | vs Barnet | 1–1 | D |
| 24 Oct | @ Chesterfield | 1–5 | L |
| 20 Oct | @ Exeter City | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Rochdale | 3–2 | W |
| 10 Oct | @ Swindon Town | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Oct | @ Blackpool | 2–2 | D |
AFC Wimbledon – last 6
| 31 Oct | @ Stockport County | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Oct | vs Arsenal U21 | 1–2 | L |
| 24 Oct | vs Wycombe | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Oct | vs Mansfield Town | 0–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | @ Sheffield Wednesday | 0–5 | L |
| 10 Oct | @ Plymouth | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Crewe and AFC Wimbledon.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon?
On our numbers Crewe have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and AFC Wimbledon 39%.
How many goals will there be in Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
When is Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon?
Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon (FA Cup) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Alexandra Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.