Challenge Cup · Scotland · Albert Bartlett Stadium
Airdrie United vs Elgin City prediction & analysis
Airdrie United or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Value bet: Airdrie United to win @ 1.70 – our chance 65% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Airdrie United 2.4 – 1.1 Elgin City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Airdrie United are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 14% for Elgin City.
Airdrie United have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.8 per game. Elgin City have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. Elgin City come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.5 goals (2.4 for Airdrie United, 1.1 for Elgin City). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%), 1–1 (8%).
In their last 1 meeting, Airdrie United have won 0, Elgin City have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Airdrie United or draw at a 86% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is better than our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Airdrie United to win at 1.70 is our value angle (65% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Airdrie United to win ✓ | 65% | 1.54 | 1.70 ▲ |
| Double chance | Airdrie United or draw ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 63% | 1.58 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 84% | 1.20 | 1.17 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 64% | 1.57 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 58% | 1.74 | 1.53 |
| Half-time result | Airdrie United ahead at half-time ✓ | 49% | 2.03 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Airdrie United / FT Airdrie United ✓ | 44% | 2.28 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.41 | – |
Form
Airdrie United – last 6
| 31 Oct | vs Cove Rangers | 0–1 | L |
| 24 Oct | @ Ross County | 0–4 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Hamilton Academical | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs Hearts U21 | 3–2 | W |
| 10 Oct | @ East Kilbride | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Montrose | 1–0 | W |
Elgin City – last 6
| 31 Oct | @ Kelty Hearts | 1–0 | W |
| 24 Oct | @ Stirling University | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Edinburgh City | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Oct | vs Aberdeen U21 | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Oct | @ Forfar Athletic | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Clyde | 6–2 | W |
Head to head
| 27 Jun 2026 | Airdrie United v Elgin City | 1–1 |
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Cove Rangers2Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Airdrie United vs Elgin City?
Our pick is Airdrie United or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Airdrie United vs Elgin City?
On our numbers Airdrie United have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Elgin City 14%.
How many goals will there be in Airdrie United vs Elgin City?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
When is Airdrie United vs Elgin City?
Airdrie United vs Elgin City (Challenge Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 3 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Albert Bartlett Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.