Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División Apertura sees Liverpool Montevideo take on Penarol on Sunday 18 October, kicking off at 22:30 (WAT) at Estadio Belvedere. Liverpool Montevideo are 1st with 30 points from 13 games (top of the table), while Penarol sit 5th on 22 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Liverpool Montevideo's last 5: DWWWD Most recently they drew with Deportivo Maldonado 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Penarol's last 5: DWDWD Most recently they drew with Progreso 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 14 April 2026, finished Penarol 0–2 Liverpool Montevideo.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.0 for Liverpool Montevideo and 1.4 for Penarol. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Liverpool Montevideo 30%, draw 22%, Penarol 48%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.91.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 56% chance at odds of 1.91, above our fair price of 1.80, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Liverpool Montevideo 1–1 Penarol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Liverpool Montevideo30%fair 3.33 · @3.40
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.10
Penarol48%fair 2.10 · @2.10
2.42Expected goals
1.03Liverpool Montevideo xG
1.39Penarol xG
56%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–09%
0–09%
1–29%
0–29%
From our goals model: Liverpool Montevideo 1.0 – 1.4 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol?
On our numbers Liverpool Montevideo have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Penarol 48%.
How many goals will there be in Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Liverpool Montevideo 1–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol?
Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Belvedere.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
