Value bet: Portugalete to win @ 3.00 – our chance 39% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultPortugalete to win39% · @3.00
Double chanceEither team to win74% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score63% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 10.94
Portugalete vs Real Unión preview and prediction
The match
Real Unión travel to Estadio La Florida in the Copa Del Rey on Wednesday 18 November (19:00 WAT) to face Portugalete.
Form guide
Portugalete's last 5: WDDDW Most recently they beat Ourense CF 3–0 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Real Unión's last 5: LLWDD Most recently they lost to Barakaldo 0–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Portugalete arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 1.8 for Portugalete and 1.5 for Real Unión. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 64% and both teams to score at 63%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Portugalete 39%, draw 26%, Real Unión 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Portugalete to win at 3.00 – 39% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Prediction
Our prediction: Both teams to score – a 63% chance at odds of 1.73, above our fair price of 1.59, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Portugalete 1–1 Real Unión. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Portugalete39%fair 2.54 · @3.00
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @3.10
Real Unión35%fair 2.87 · @2.25
3.28Expected goals
1.83Portugalete xG
1.45Real Unión xG
63%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
2–19%
1–27%
1–07%
2–27%
2–06%
From our goals model: Portugalete 1.8 – 1.5 Real Unión expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Portugalete to win
39%
2.54
3.00 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
74%
1.35
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
63%
1.59
1.73 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
58%
1.71
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
37%
2.67
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Portugalete / FT Portugalete
29%
3.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
10.94
–
Form
Portugalete – last 6
WDDDWL
8 Nov
@ Ourense CF
3–0
W
1 Nov
vs Arosa
3–3
D
25 Oct
@ Basconia
2–2
D
17 Oct
vs Eibar II
0–0
D
10 Oct
@ Amorebieta
2–1
W
3 Oct
vs Deportivo Alavés II
0–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Real Unión – last 6
LLWDDD
7 Nov
@ Barakaldo
0–2
L
31 Oct
vs Real Avilés
0–3
L
23 Oct
vs Lugo
4–1
W
17 Oct
@ Extremadura 1924
2–2
D
11 Oct
@ Athletic Club II
0–0
D
3 Oct
vs UD Ourense
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Portugalete and Real Unión.
What is the prediction for Portugalete vs Real Unión?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Portugalete vs Real Unión?
On our numbers Portugalete have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Real Unión 35%.
How many goals will there be in Portugalete vs Real Unión?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Portugalete vs Real Unión?
Our predicted score is Portugalete 1–1 Real Unión, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Portugalete vs Real Unión?
Portugalete vs Real Unión (Copa Del Rey) kicks off on Wednesday 18 November 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio La Florida.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.