Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Oviedo to win @ 1.91 – our chance 65% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultOviedo to win ✗65% · @1.91
Double chanceOviedo or draw ✓87% · @1.25
Numancia vs Oviedo preview and prediction
The match
Numancia host Oviedo in the Copa Del Rey on Thursday 29 October, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT) at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos.
Form guide
Numancia's last 5: LDDDW Most recently they lost to Navalcarnero 2–3 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Oviedo's last 5: DWWLW Most recently they drew with Almeria 2–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Oviedo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Betting angles
Win chances: Numancia 13%, draw 22%, Oviedo 65%.
Safer route: Oviedo or draw (87%) at 1.25.
Value angle: Oviedo to win at 1.91 – 65% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Oviedo or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Numancia13%fair 7.64 · @3.70
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.30
Oviedo65%fair 1.55 · @1.91
Most likely scores
Goal projections appear once goal data is in.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Oviedo to win✗
65%
1.55
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Oviedo or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.25 ▲
Form
Numancia – last 6
LDDDWD
24 Oct
vs Navalcarnero
2–3
L
18 Oct
vs CF Talavera
0–0
D
11 Oct
@ Real Ávila
1–1
D
4 Oct
@ Getafe II
0–0
D
27 Sep
vs Guadalajara
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ SS Reyes
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Oviedo – last 6
DWWLWL
24 Oct
@ Almeria
2–2
D
18 Oct
@ AD Ceuta FC
2–1
W
12 Oct
vs Eibar
3–1
W
2 Oct
@ Eldense
1–4
L
27 Sep
vs Sporting Gijon
2–0
W
20 Sep
@ Sabadell
1–3
L
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Numancia and Oviedo.
Our pick is Oviedo or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Numancia vs Oviedo?
On our numbers Numancia have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Oviedo 65%.
When is Numancia vs Oviedo?
Numancia vs Oviedo (Copa Del Rey) kicks off on Thursday 29 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.