Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon prediction & analysis
66%
Footrivo pick
CD Marathon to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.73 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.73Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultCD Marathon to win ✗66% · @1.73
Double chanceCD Marathon or draw ✓87% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗17% · fair 5.96
Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Nacional sees Atletico Independiente take on CD Marathon on Sunday 25 October, kicking off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estadio Carlos Miranda. Atletico Independiente are 10th with 13 points from 14 games (in the bottom three), while CD Marathon sit 3rd on 28 points (in the top four). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Atletico Independiente's last 5: LDLWD Most recently they lost to Lobos Upnfm 0–4 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
CD Marathon's last 5: WWDLL Most recently they beat Alianza 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
CD Marathon arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 4 August 2026, finished CD Marathon 1–0 Atletico Independiente.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 0.6 for Atletico Independiente and 1.8 for CD Marathon. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 45%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atletico Independiente 13%, draw 21%, CD Marathon 66%.
Safer route: CD Marathon or draw (87%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: no (55%) at 1.85.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was CD Marathon to win – a 66% chance at odds of 1.73, above our fair price of 1.51, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Atletico Independiente 0–1 CD Marathon. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico Independiente13%fair 7.93 · @4.50
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.30
CD Marathon66%fair 1.51 · @1.73
2.35Expected goals
0.59Atletico Independiente xG
1.76CD Marathon xG
45%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–117%
0–215%
1–110%
0–010%
1–29%
0–39%
From our goals model: Atletico Independiente 0.6 – 1.8 CD Marathon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon?
Our pick is CD Marathon to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon?
On our numbers Atletico Independiente have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 21% and CD Marathon 66%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon?
Our predicted score is Atletico Independiente 0–1 CD Marathon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon?
Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Carlos Miranda.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
