Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.91 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.91Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultReal Murcia to win ✗63% · @1.91
Double chanceEither team to win ✓85% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.75
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.47
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.45
Navalcarnero vs Real Murcia preview and prediction
The match
The Copa Federacion sees Navalcarnero take on Real Murcia on Wednesday 30 September, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT) at Estadio Mariano Gonzalez.
Form guide
Navalcarnero's last 5: LWDWD Most recently they lost to Conquense 1–3 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Real Murcia's last 5: WDLDW Most recently they beat Europa Fc 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Real Murcia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 1.2 for Navalcarnero and 2.3 for Real Murcia. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 68% and both teams to score at 61%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Navalcarnero 22%, draw 15%, Real Murcia 63%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Real Murcia to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.91, above our fair price of 1.58, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Navalcarnero 1–2 Real Murcia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Navalcarnero22%fair 4.58 · @3.40
Draw15%fair 6.66 · @3.40
Real Murcia63%fair 1.58 · @1.91
3.50Expected goals
1.23Navalcarnero xG
2.27Real Murcia xG
61%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–210%
1–18%
0–28%
1–37%
0–17%
0–36%
From our goals model: Navalcarnero 1.2 – 2.3 Real Murcia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Real Murcia to win✗
63%
1.58
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
85%
1.18
1.29 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.75 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
–
Half-time result
Real Murcia ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Real Murcia / FT Real Murcia✗
39%
2.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.45
–
Form
Navalcarnero – last 6
LWDWDL
27 Sep
vs Conquense
1–3
L
23 Sep
@ Saguntino
4–0
W
20 Sep
@ Atlético Tordesillas
2–2
D
13 Sep
vs Real Ávila
2–1
W
9 Sep
@ CF Talavera
0–0
D
6 Sep
@ Real Valladolid II
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Real Murcia – last 6
WDLDWW
19 Sep
vs Europa Fc
2–1
W
16 Sep
@ Orihuela
1–1
D
13 Sep
@ Atlético Madrid II
0–4
L
9 Sep
@ Mensajero
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Teruel
4–0
W
29 Aug
@ Hércules
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Navalcarnero and Real Murcia.
What is the prediction for Navalcarnero vs Real Murcia?
Our pick is Real Murcia to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Navalcarnero vs Real Murcia?
On our numbers Navalcarnero have a 22% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Real Murcia 63%.
How many goals will there be in Navalcarnero vs Real Murcia?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Navalcarnero vs Real Murcia?
Our predicted score is Navalcarnero 1–2 Real Murcia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Navalcarnero vs Real Murcia?
Navalcarnero vs Real Murcia (Copa Federacion) kicks off on Wednesday 30 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Mariano Gonzalez.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Sestao River4
Terrassa1