Cup · Slovenia · Stanko Mlakar Stadium
Triglav vs Nafta prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Fair pick · fair odds 1.83 · bookmaker 1.73 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Triglav 1.2 – 1.6 Nafta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Nafta shade it despite being away from home – 49% to win, against 31% for Triglav.
Triglav have taken 16 points from their last 6 matches (5W 1D 0L), scoring 2.5 and conceding 0.2 per game. Nafta have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded. Triglav come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.9 goals (1.2 for Triglav, 1.6 for Nafta). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 51%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Triglav have won 0, Nafta have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 55% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.73 is close to our fair price of 1.83.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Nafta to win ✗ | 49% | 2.06 | 2.00 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 51% | 1.98 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 55% | 1.83 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.48 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 41% | 2.47 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Nafta / FT Nafta ✗ | 28% | 3.55 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 9% | 10.69 | – |
Form
Triglav – last 6
| 16 Oct | vs Dekani | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | @ Krško | 2–0 | W |
| 4 Oct | vs Jesenice | 4–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Primorje | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Slovan Ljubljana | 3–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Brežice | 4–0 | W |
Nafta – last 6
| 17 Oct | @ Mura | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Bravo | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Koper | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Sep | @ Brinje-Grosuplje | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Sep | vs Radomlje | 3–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | vs Maribor | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
| 22 May 2026 | Nafta v Triglav | 1–1 |
More Cup predictions
League hub
Bistrica4
Bilje3
Tabor Sežana1
Koper0
Brežice2
Aluminij2Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Triglav vs Nafta?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Triglav vs Nafta?
On our numbers Triglav have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Nafta 49%.
How many goals will there be in Triglav vs Nafta?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is Triglav vs Nafta?
Triglav vs Nafta (Cup) kicks off on Friday 23 October 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Stanko Mlakar Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.