Cup · Slovenia
Brežice vs Aluminij prediction & analysis
Aluminij to win
Strong pick · fair odds 1.45 · bookmaker 1.30 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Brežice 0.8 – 2.2 Aluminij expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Aluminij travel as clear favourites – 69% to win, against 14% for Brežice.
Brežice have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.2 per game. Aluminij have 5 points from their last 6 (1W 2D 3L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 3.0 goals (0.8 for Brežice, 2.2 for Aluminij). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 0–2 (12%), 0–1 (11%), 1–2 (10%).
Our pick is Aluminij to win at a 69% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.30 is close to our fair price of 1.45.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Aluminij to win ✗ | 69% | 1.45 | 1.30 |
| Double chance | Aluminij or draw ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | 1.06 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 54% | 1.84 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 57% | 1.75 | 1.65 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 65% | 1.53 | – |
| Half-time result | Aluminij ahead at half-time ✗ | 49% | 2.02 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Aluminij / FT Aluminij ✗ | 45% | 2.23 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–2 ✗ | 12% | 8.39 | – |
Form
Brežice – last 6
| 18 Oct | vs Krško | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | @ Jesenice | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Primorje | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Sep | @ Slovan Ljubljana | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Rudar | 3–4 | L |
| 16 Sep | @ Triglav | 0–4 | L |
Aluminij – last 6
| 16 Oct | vs Olimpija Ljubljana | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Oct | @ Celje | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | @ Maribor | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sep | @ Mura | 6–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Bravo | 0–0 | D |
| 2 Sep | vs Celje | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Brežice and Aluminij.
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Nafta1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Brežice vs Aluminij?
Our pick is Aluminij to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Brežice vs Aluminij?
On our numbers Brežice have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Aluminij 69%.
How many goals will there be in Brežice vs Aluminij?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
When is Brežice vs Aluminij?
Brežice vs Aluminij (Cup) kicks off on Friday 23 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.