Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso prediction & analysis
65%
Footrivo pick
Liverpool Montevideo to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.65 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.65Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultLiverpool Montevideo to win ✓65% · @1.65
Double chanceLiverpool Montevideo or draw ✓84% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.76
Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso preview and prediction
The match
Progreso travel to Estadio Alfredo Victor Viera in the Primera División Apertura on Saturday 3 October (15:00 WAT) to face Liverpool Montevideo. Liverpool Montevideo are 1st with 30 points from 13 games (top of the table), while Progreso sit 7th on 19 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Liverpool Montevideo's last 5: WWDLW Most recently they beat Central Espanol 2–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Progreso's last 5: WWLLW Most recently they beat Racing Montevideo 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 31 March 2026, finished Progreso 3–3 Liverpool Montevideo.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.6 for Liverpool Montevideo and 0.6 for Progreso. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 48%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Liverpool Montevideo 65%, draw 19%, Progreso 16%.
Safer route: Liverpool Montevideo or draw (84%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.91.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Liverpool Montevideo to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.65, above our fair price of 1.53, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Progreso. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Liverpool Montevideo65%fair 1.53 · @1.65
Draw19%fair 5.23 · @3.80
Progreso16%fair 6.38 · @4.60
2.25Expected goals
1.65Liverpool Montevideo xG
0.60Progreso xG
48%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
0–011%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Liverpool Montevideo 1.6 – 0.6 Progreso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Liverpool Montevideo to win✓
65%
1.53
1.65 ▲
Double chance
Liverpool Montevideo or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.18
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
81%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Liverpool Montevideo / FT Liverpool Montevideo✓
What is the prediction for Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso?
Our pick is Liverpool Montevideo to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso?
On our numbers Liverpool Montevideo have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Progreso 16%.
How many goals will there be in Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso?
Our predicted score is Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Progreso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso?
Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Alfredo Victor Viera.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
