Value bet: Ethiopian Medhin to win @ 2.70 – our chance 43% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultEthiopian Medhin to win ✗43% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗63% · fair 1.59
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓72% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗17% · fair 5.90
Awassa Kenema vs Ethiopian Medhin preview and prediction
The match
Awassa Kenema host Ethiopian Medhin in the Premier League on Saturday 17 October, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT). Awassa Kenema are 11th with 5 points from 4 games (in the bottom half), while Ethiopian Medhin sit 6th on 7 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Awassa Kenema's last 5: LLDDL Most recently they lost to Mekelakeya 0–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Ethiopian Medhin's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Gamo Chencha 2–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 29 April 2026, finished Ethiopian Medhin 2–1 Awassa Kenema.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 0.8 for Awassa Kenema and 1.0 for Ethiopian Medhin. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 72% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Ethiopian Medhin to win at 2.70 – 43% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Awassa Kenema 0–0 Ethiopian Medhin. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Awassa Kenema33%fair 3.04 · @2.60
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @2.75
Ethiopian Medhin43%fair 2.33 · @2.70
1.73Expected goals
0.77Awassa Kenema xG
0.96Ethiopian Medhin xG
37%Both score
28%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–018%
0–117%
1–014%
1–113%
0–28%
1–26%
From our goals model: Awassa Kenema 0.8 – 1.0 Ethiopian Medhin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Awassa Kenema vs Ethiopian Medhin?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Awassa Kenema vs Ethiopian Medhin?
On our numbers Awassa Kenema have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ethiopian Medhin 43%.
How many goals will there be in Awassa Kenema vs Ethiopian Medhin?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 28% likely and both teams score 37% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Awassa Kenema vs Ethiopian Medhin?
Our predicted score is Awassa Kenema 0–0 Ethiopian Medhin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Awassa Kenema vs Ethiopian Medhin?
Awassa Kenema vs Ethiopian Medhin (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
