Progreso vs Racing Montevideo prediction & analysis
81%
Footrivo pick
Racing Montevideo or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultRacing Montevideo to win ✗58% · @1.83
Double chanceRacing Montevideo or draw ✗81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗16% · fair 6.15
Progreso vs Racing Montevideo preview and prediction
The match
Racing Montevideo travel to Parque Abraham Paladino in the Primera División Apertura on Saturday 26 September (15:00 WAT) to face Progreso. Progreso are 7th with 19 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Racing Montevideo sit 6th on 19 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Progreso's last 5: WLLWL Most recently they beat Boston River 2–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Racing Montevideo's last 5: DLWLL Most recently they drew with Liverpool Montevideo 0–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 26 March 2026, finished Racing Montevideo 1–1 Progreso.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 0.7 for Progreso and 1.5 for Racing Montevideo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Progreso 19%, draw 23%, Racing Montevideo 58%.
Safer route: Racing Montevideo or draw (81%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.00.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Racing Montevideo or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Progreso 0–1 Racing Montevideo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Progreso19%fair 5.21 · @3.90
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.10
Racing Montevideo58%fair 1.74 · @1.83
2.23Expected goals
0.72Progreso xG
1.51Racing Montevideo xG
52%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
0–212%
1–112%
0–011%
1–29%
1–08%
From our goals model: Progreso 0.7 – 1.5 Racing Montevideo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Progreso vs Racing Montevideo?
Our pick is Racing Montevideo or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Progreso vs Racing Montevideo?
On our numbers Progreso have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Racing Montevideo 58%.
How many goals will there be in Progreso vs Racing Montevideo?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Progreso vs Racing Montevideo?
Our predicted score is Progreso 0–1 Racing Montevideo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Progreso vs Racing Montevideo?
Progreso vs Racing Montevideo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Parque Abraham Paladino.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
