Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 51% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico-MG to win ✓72% · @1.36
Double chanceAtletico-MG or draw ✓90% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.25
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗15% · fair 6.52
Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque preview and prediction
The match
Atletico Torque travel to Arena MRV in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana on Wednesday 14 October (23:00 WAT) to face Atletico-MG. Atletico-MG are 1st with 10 points from 6 games, while Atletico Torque sit 1st on 13 points. Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Atletico-MG's last 5: WDWDW Most recently they beat Santos 2–1 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 5. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Atletico Torque's last 5: WLDLD Most recently they beat Danubio 1–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Atletico-MG arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 2.0 for Atletico-MG and 0.6 for Atletico Torque. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 51%.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.25 – 51% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Atletico-MG to win – a 72% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Atletico-MG 2–0 Atletico Torque. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico-MG72%fair 1.39 · @1.36
Draw18%fair 5.46 · @4.20
Atletico Torque10%fair 10.09 · @9.50
2.57Expected goals
2.00Atletico-MG xG
0.57Atletico Torque xG
51%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–015%
1–015%
3–010%
2–19%
1–19%
0–08%
From our goals model: Atletico-MG 2.0 – 0.6 Atletico Torque expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico-MG to win✓
72%
1.39
1.36
Double chance
Atletico-MG or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
2.25 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Half-time result
Atletico-MG ahead at half-time✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico-MG / FT Atletico-MG✓
46%
2.15
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
15%
6.52
–
Form
Atletico-MG – last 6
WDWDWW
11 Oct
vs Santos
2–1
W
9 Oct
@ Atletico Paranaense
2–2
D
3 Oct
vs RB Bragantino
1–0
W
19 Sep
vs Chapecoense-sc
1–1
D
16 Sep
vs Santos
4–2
W
12 Sep
vs Fluminense
3–1
W
2.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Atletico Torque – last 6
WLDLDW
9 Oct
vs Danubio
1–0
W
6 Oct
@ Club Nacional
0–2
L
1 Oct
vs Penarol
1–1
D
27 Sep
vs Deportivo Maldonado
0–2
L
24 Sep
vs Atenas
3–3
D
21 Sep
@ Central Espanol
4–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico-MG and Atletico Torque.
What is the prediction for Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque?
Our pick is Atletico-MG to win with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque?
On our numbers Atletico-MG have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Atletico Torque 10%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque?
Our predicted score is Atletico-MG 2–0 Atletico Torque, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque?
Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena MRV.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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