Value bet: Vasco DA Gama to win @ 3.70 – our chance 32% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBoca Juniors to win ✗44% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.94
Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama preview and prediction
The match
Vasco DA Gama travel to Alberto J. Armando in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana on Wednesday 14 October (01:30 WAT) to face Boca Juniors.
Form guide
Boca Juniors's last 5: DWWWD Most recently they drew with Instituto Cordoba 2–2 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Vasco DA Gama's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Remo 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.3 for Boca Juniors and 1.0 for Vasco DA Gama. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 50%.
Value angle: Vasco DA Gama to win at 3.70 – 32% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 50% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Boca Juniors 1–0 Vasco DA Gama. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Boca Juniors44%fair 2.26 · @2.10
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @2.80
Vasco DA Gama32%fair 3.16 · @3.70
2.33Expected goals
1.29Boca Juniors xG
1.04Vasco DA Gama xG
50%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–110%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Boca Juniors 1.3 – 1.0 Vasco DA Gama expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Boca Juniors to win✗
44%
2.26
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.36
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Boca Juniors / FT Boca Juniors✗
25%
4.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.94
–
Form
Boca Juniors – last 6
DWWWDW
9 Oct
@ Instituto Cordoba
2–2
D
3 Oct
vs Union Santa Fe
3–0
W
27 Sep
@ Racing Club
3–2
W
20 Sep
@ San Lorenzo
2–0
W
16 Sep
@ Sao Paulo
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Central Cordoba de Santiago
3–1
W
2.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Vasco DA Gama – last 6
DWWWWD
10 Oct
vs Remo
0–0
D
8 Oct
@ Botafogo
2–1
W
20 Sep
vs Coritiba
5–0
W
15 Sep
vs Santa Fe
2–0
W
12 Sep
@ Gremio
2–1
W
8 Sep
@ Santa Fe
0–0
D
1.8Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Boca Juniors and Vasco DA Gama.
What is the prediction for Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama?
On our numbers Boca Juniors have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Vasco DA Gama 32%.
How many goals will there be in Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our predicted score is Boca Juniors 1–0 Vasco DA Gama, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama?
Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Alberto J. Armando.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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