Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
2
Value bet: Aston Villa to win @ 2.90 – our chance 40% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAston Villa to win ✗40% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗67% · @1.57
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 13.42
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa preview and prediction
The match
Aston Villa travel to Vitality Stadium in the League Cup on Wednesday 28 October (20:45 WAT) to face Bournemouth.
Form guide
Bournemouth's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Manchester United 3–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Aston Villa's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Manchester City 2–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.8 goals a game.
Aston Villa arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 2.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.0 goals: 2.0 for Bournemouth and 2.0 for Aston Villa. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 76% and both teams to score at 67%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bournemouth 37%, draw 24%, Aston Villa 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (67%) at 1.57.
Value angle: Aston Villa to win at 2.90 – 40% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 67% chance at odds of 1.57, above our fair price of 1.49, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Bournemouth 1–2 Aston Villa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bournemouth37%fair 2.72 · @2.25
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @3.30
Aston Villa40%fair 2.53 · @2.90
4.00Expected goals
1.96Bournemouth xG
2.04Aston Villa xG
67%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–27%
1–17%
2–27%
2–17%
1–35%
2–35%
From our goals model: Bournemouth 2.0 – 2.0 Aston Villa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aston Villa to win✗
40%
2.53
2.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
67%
1.49
1.57 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
–
Half-time result
Aston Villa ahead at half-time✗
34%
2.93
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aston Villa / FT Aston Villa✗
25%
3.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
13.42
–
Form
Bournemouth – last 6
WWWWLL
25 Oct
@ Manchester United
3–0
W
22 Oct
vs AC Milan
3–0
W
18 Oct
vs Sunderland
2–0
W
15 Oct
vs Sturm Graz
3–0
W
10 Oct
@ Chelsea
1–5
L
20 Sep
vs Liverpool
0–1
L
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Aston Villa – last 6
WWWWDW
24 Oct
vs Manchester City
2–1
W
21 Oct
vs Viking
3–1
W
17 Oct
@ Newcastle
1–0
W
14 Oct
vs Fenerbahçe
6–0
W
10 Oct
vs Brentford
2–2
D
2 Oct
@ Sevilla
3–1
W
2.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bournemouth and Aston Villa.
What is the prediction for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
On our numbers Bournemouth have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Aston Villa 40%.
How many goals will there be in Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Our predicted score is Bournemouth 1–2 Aston Villa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa (League Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Vitality Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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