Gibraltar vs Sao Tome and Principe prediction & analysis
61%
Footrivo pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 2.25 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
2.25Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultGibraltar to win ✗66% · @1.25
Double chanceGibraltar or draw ✓87% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @2.25
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–1 ✗8% · fair 13.20
Gibraltar vs Sao Tome and Principe preview and prediction
The match
The Friendlies sees Gibraltar take on Sao Tome and Principe on Wednesday 23 September, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT) at Europa Point Stadium.
Form guide
Gibraltar's last 4: WWLL Most recently they beat Cayman Islands 4–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.5 goals: 3.0 for Gibraltar and 1.5 for Sao Tome and Principe. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score in 61% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Gibraltar 66%, draw 21%, Sao Tome and Principe 13%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 2.25.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 61% chance at odds of 2.25, above our fair price of 1.65, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Gibraltar 3–1 Sao Tome and Principe. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gibraltar66%fair 1.51 · @1.25
Draw21%fair 4.85 · @5.00
Sao Tome and Principe13%fair 7.64 · @11.00
4.50Expected goals
3.03Gibraltar xG
1.47Sao Tome and Principe xG
61%Both score
83%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
3–18%
2–17%
4–16%
3–26%
2–26%
3–05%
From our goals model: Gibraltar 3.0 – 1.5 Sao Tome and Principe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gibraltar to win✗
66%
1.51
1.25
Double chance
Gibraltar or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.65
2.25 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
94%
1.07
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
–
Half-time result
Gibraltar ahead at half-time✗
53%
1.88
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gibraltar / FT Gibraltar✗
47%
2.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–1✗
8%
13.20
–
Form
Gibraltar – last 4
WWLL
6 Jun
vs Cayman Islands
4–1
W
3 Jun
vs British Virgin Islands
4–0
W
31 Mar
@ Latvia
0–1
L
26 Mar
vs Latvia
0–1
L
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sao Tome and Principe – last 2
LL
31 Mar
@ Ethiopia
0–1
L
27 Mar
vs Ethiopia
0–3
L
0.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gibraltar and Sao Tome and Principe.
What is the prediction for Gibraltar vs Sao Tome and Principe?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.25.
Who will win Gibraltar vs Sao Tome and Principe?
On our numbers Gibraltar have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Sao Tome and Principe 13%.
How many goals will there be in Gibraltar vs Sao Tome and Principe?
We expect about 4.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gibraltar vs Sao Tome and Principe?
Our predicted score is Gibraltar 3–1 Sao Tome and Principe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.5 goals in total.
When is Gibraltar vs Sao Tome and Principe?
Gibraltar vs Sao Tome and Principe (Friendlies) kicks off on Wednesday 23 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Europa Point Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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