Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Azerbaijan to win @ 1.75 – our chance 66% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAzerbaijan to win ✓66% · @1.75
Double chanceAzerbaijan or draw ✓87% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓13% · fair 7.89
Azerbaijan vs Tajikistan preview and prediction
The match
The Friendlies sees Azerbaijan take on Tajikistan on Wednesday 23 September, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT) at Palms Sports Arena.
Form guide
Azerbaijan's last 3: WLW Most recently they beat San Marino 2–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game.
Tajikistan's last 3: DWD Most recently they drew with India 1–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.0 for Azerbaijan and 0.8 for Tajikistan. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 49%.
Value angle: Azerbaijan to win at 1.75 – 66% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Azerbaijan or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Azerbaijan 1–0 Tajikistan. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Azerbaijan66%fair 1.53 · @1.75
Draw21%fair 4.70 · @3.40
Tajikistan13%fair 7.60 · @4.20
2.75Expected goals
1.98Azerbaijan xG
0.77Tajikistan xG
49%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–06%
From our goals model: Azerbaijan 2.0 – 0.8 Tajikistan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Azerbaijan to win✓
66%
1.53
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Azerbaijan or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Half-time result
Azerbaijan ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Azerbaijan / FT Azerbaijan✗
42%
2.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
13%
7.89
–
Form
Azerbaijan – last 3
WLW
9 Jun
vs San Marino
2–1
W
5 Jun
vs Malta
0–2
L
27 Mar
vs St. Lucia
6–1
W
2.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Tajikistan – last 3
DWD
9 Jun
vs India
1–1
D
5 Jun
vs India
3–1
W
31 Mar
vs Philippines
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Azerbaijan and Tajikistan.
What is the prediction for Azerbaijan vs Tajikistan?
Our pick is Azerbaijan or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Azerbaijan vs Tajikistan?
On our numbers Azerbaijan have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Tajikistan 13%.
How many goals will there be in Azerbaijan vs Tajikistan?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Azerbaijan vs Tajikistan?
Our predicted score is Azerbaijan 1–0 Tajikistan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Azerbaijan vs Tajikistan?
Azerbaijan vs Tajikistan (Friendlies) kicks off on Wednesday 23 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Palms Sports Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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