Leones del Norte vs Libertad prediction & analysis
78%
Footrivo pick
Leones del Norte or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Leones del Norte to win @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLeones del Norte to win ✓57% · @1.95
Double chanceLeones del Norte or draw ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.42
Leones del Norte vs Libertad preview and prediction
The match
Leones del Norte host Libertad in the Liga Pro on Sunday 25 October, with kick-off at 22:00 (WAT) at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra. Leones del Norte are 9th with 47 points from 36 games, while Libertad sit 7th on 51 points.
Form guide
Leones del Norte's last 5: LLDLD Most recently they lost to Emelec 1–3 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Libertad's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Guayaquil City FC 4–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Libertad arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 9 October 2026, finished Libertad 3–0 Leones del Norte. Across their last 2 meetings Leones del Norte have won 1, Libertad 1, with 0 draws and 3.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.5 for Leones del Norte and 0.8 for Libertad. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 48%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leones del Norte 57%, draw 22%, Libertad 22%.
Safer route: Leones del Norte or draw (78%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Leones del Norte to win at 1.95 – 57% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Leones del Norte or draw – a 78% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Leones del Norte 1–0 Libertad. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leones del Norte57%fair 1.76 · @1.95
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @3.00
Libertad22%fair 4.63 · @3.40
2.26Expected goals
1.49Leones del Norte xG
0.77Libertad xG
48%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
1–112%
2–012%
0–010%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Leones del Norte 1.5 – 0.8 Libertad expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Leones del Norte vs Libertad?
Our pick is Leones del Norte or draw with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Leones del Norte vs Libertad?
On our numbers Leones del Norte have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Libertad 22%.
How many goals will there be in Leones del Norte vs Libertad?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones del Norte vs Libertad?
Our predicted score is Leones del Norte 1–0 Libertad, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Leones del Norte vs Libertad?
Leones del Norte vs Libertad (Liga Pro) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
