Independiente F.b.c. vs Nacional Asuncion prediction & analysis
63%
Footrivo pick
Nacional Asuncion to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.73 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.73Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.00 – our chance 56% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNacional Asuncion to win ✗63% · @1.73
Double chanceNacional Asuncion or draw ✓87% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗60% · fair 1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗19% · fair 5.38
Independiente F.b.c. vs Nacional Asuncion preview and prediction
The match
Nacional Asuncion travel to face Independiente F.b.c. in the Copa Paraguay on Wednesday 30 September (21:00 WAT).
Form guide
Independiente F.b.c.'s last 5: LWWWD Most recently they lost to Sportivo Carapeguá 0–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Nacional Asuncion's last 5: DWWLW Most recently they drew with Sportivo Ameliano 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 0.6 for Independiente F.b.c. and 1.6 for Nacional Asuncion. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 56% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Independiente F.b.c. 13%, draw 23%, Nacional Asuncion 63%.
Safer route: Nacional Asuncion or draw (87%) at 1.17.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 2.00 – 56% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Nacional Asuncion to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.73, above our fair price of 1.58, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Independiente F.b.c. 0–1 Nacional Asuncion. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Independiente F.b.c.13%fair 7.41 · @4.00
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @3.50
Nacional Asuncion63%fair 1.58 · @1.73
2.14Expected goals
0.56Independiente F.b.c. xG
1.58Nacional Asuncion xG
40%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–119%
0–215%
0–012%
1–110%
1–28%
0–38%
From our goals model: Independiente F.b.c. 0.6 – 1.6 Nacional Asuncion expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nacional Asuncion to win✗
63%
1.58
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Nacional Asuncion or draw✓
87%
1.16
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
2.00 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
83%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nacional Asuncion / FT Nacional Asuncion✗
38%
2.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
19%
5.38
–
Form
Independiente F.b.c. – last 6
LWWWDL
25 Sep
vs Sportivo Carapeguá
0–1
L
20 Sep
@ 12 de Junio VH
4–0
W
14 Sep
vs Encarnación
1–0
W
9 Sep
@ Deportivo Santani
2–1
W
4 Sep
vs Fernando De La Mora
0–0
D
28 Aug
@ 3 de Noviembre
2–5
L
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Nacional Asuncion – last 6
DWWLWW
25 Sep
vs Sportivo Ameliano
1–1
D
18 Sep
vs 2 de Mayo
3–0
W
13 Sep
@ Rubio NU
1–0
W
7 Sep
@ Cerro Porteno
0–1
L
2 Sep
vs Libertad Asuncion
3–0
W
28 Aug
@ Club Sp. San Lorenzo
3–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente F.b.c. and Nacional Asuncion.
What is the prediction for Independiente F.b.c. vs Nacional Asuncion?
Our pick is Nacional Asuncion to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Independiente F.b.c. vs Nacional Asuncion?
On our numbers Independiente F.b.c. have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Nacional Asuncion 63%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente F.b.c. vs Nacional Asuncion?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente F.b.c. vs Nacional Asuncion?
Our predicted score is Independiente F.b.c. 0–1 Nacional Asuncion, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Independiente F.b.c. vs Nacional Asuncion?
Independiente F.b.c. vs Nacional Asuncion (Copa Paraguay) kicks off on Wednesday 30 September 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Cerro Porteno2
Rubio NU1