FA Cup · England
Merthyr Town vs Truro City prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Fair pick · fair odds 2.00 · bookmaker 1.90 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Merthyr Town 1.3 – 1.4 Truro City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Merthyr Town and Truro City on our numbers – 38% for the home side, 39% for the visitors and 23% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Merthyr Town have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.8 per game. Truro City have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 2.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
We expect around 2.7 goals (1.3 for Merthyr Town, 1.4 for Truro City). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 49%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%).
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 50% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.90 is close to our fair price of 2.00.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Truro City to win ✗ | 39% | 2.55 | 2.40 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 51% | 1.95 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.34 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 50% | 2.00 | 1.90 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.39 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 42% | 2.35 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Truro City / FT Truro City ✗ | 22% | 4.58 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 9% | 10.72 | – |
Form
Merthyr Town – last 6
| 12 Sep | @ Scarborough Athletic | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Sep | @ Chester | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Macclesfield | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | @ Buxton | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Chorley | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Aug | @ South Shields | 1–1 | D |
Truro City – last 6
| 15 Sep | vs Salisbury | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Walton & Hersham | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Sep | vs Leicester City U21 | 4–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Chesham United | 3–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | @ Dorking Wanderers | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Dagenham & Redbridge | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Merthyr Town and Truro City.
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Macclesfield2Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Merthyr Town vs Truro City?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.90.
Who will win Merthyr Town vs Truro City?
On our numbers Merthyr Town have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Truro City 39%.
How many goals will there be in Merthyr Town vs Truro City?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is Merthyr Town vs Truro City?
Merthyr Town vs Truro City (FA Cup) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.