FA Cup · England
Bury vs Workington prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.45 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Bury 2.8 – 1.5 Workington expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Bury are clear favourites at home with a 64% chance of winning, against 16% for Workington.
Bury have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (4W 0D 2L), scoring 3.5 and conceding 0.5 per game. Workington have 18 points from their last 6 (6W 0D 0L), averaging 2.8 scored and 1.0 conceded. Workington come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 4.3 goals (2.8 for Bury, 1.5 for Workington). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–1 (8%), 3–1 (8%), 2–2 (6%).
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 69% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.62 is better than our fair price of 1.45, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Bury to win ✓ | 64% | 1.57 | 1.73 ▲ |
| Double chance | Bury or draw ✓ | 84% | 1.19 | 1.18 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 60% | 1.65 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 93% | 1.08 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.45 | 1.62 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Over 3.5 goals ✓ | 62% | 1.62 | – |
| Half-time result | Bury ahead at half-time ✓ | 51% | 1.98 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Bury / FT Bury ✓ | 44% | 2.26 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 8% | 12.37 | – |
Form
Bury – last 6
| 12 Sep | vs AFC Emley | 4–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Wythenshawe Amateurs | 8–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | @ Hyde United | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Ilkeston Town | 7–0 | W |
| 25 Aug | vs Lancaster City | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Aug | @ Gainsborough Trinity | 1–0 | W |
Workington – last 6
| 12 Sep | vs Ilkeston Town | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Marske United | 3–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | @ Lancaster City | 3–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | vs Leek Town | 3–2 | W |
| 25 Aug | vs Rylands | 3–2 | W |
| 22 Aug | @ United of Manchester | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bury and Workington.
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Macclesfield2Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Bury vs Workington?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Bury vs Workington?
On our numbers Bury have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Workington 16%.
How many goals will there be in Bury vs Workington?
We expect about 4.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Bury vs Workington?
Bury vs Workington (FA Cup) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.